Why do covid infections increase in summer?

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The current spike in cases could be due to several reasons, including waning immunity. Only about 17% of the U.S. population has received bivalent vaccines, which became available to the public in fall 2022 and are intended to offer better protection against Omicron variants . According to Sam Scarpino, director of Artificial Intelligence and Life Sciences at the Experiential AI Institute at Northeastern University (USA), the decrease in cases in recent months and the fact that many people have not received a booster dose in 2023 show that immunity from vaccines and previous infections could be waning, making more people susceptible to the virus.

Experts assumed that Covid-19 would become a seasonal virus, with peaks in autu Phone Number List mn and winter, like the flu and the common cold, but other factors have meant that it is still present in the warmer months. “It is true that most of these respiratory diseases present cyclical patterns,” says Scarpino. “I don't think we know very well what they are due to,” he confesses.

This year some particular factors may come into play. Much of the United States is experiencing a sweltering summer . Wildfire smoke from Canada is encroaching on the East Coast and Midwest, and exposure to the accompanying particulate pollutants weakens the immune system. A study conducted in 2021 concluded that in 2020, areas of California, Oregon and Washington that were affected by wildfire smoke recorded excess Covid-19 cases and deaths. Meanwhile, dangerously high temperatures are keeping people indoors in the southern region of the country, and as a respiratory virus, SARS-CoV-2 spreads more easily indoors. People also traveled at a record pace during the early summer months, which meant more opportunities for Covid to spread. But it is not yet clear whether one, all, or none of these elements cause infections.

The CDC's genomic sequencing, that is, the procedure to know and decipher the genetic code of living beings, shows that, as of June, the ramifications of the Omicron variant are responsible for all cases of Covid-19 in the United States. Joined. “On the one hand, it is a good sign,” declares Jetelina. “Hopefully we will foresee where SARS-CoV-2 is going.” That is useful for formulating updated coronavirus vaccines. But there is no certainty that its evolution will continue along this path. In May, experts estimated that the chance of a highly mutated variant emerging in the next two years was around 20%.



In June, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended the development of an updated Covid-19 vaccine, giving preference to a formulation targeting the XBB.1.5 variant of Ómicron . The FDA may authorize such a vaccine at the end of the month. But it's hard to know whether people will be willing to get a fifth or sixth dose: Pandemic fatigue, distrust in public health officials and a general return to normal life left many unenthusiastic about the year's booster shot. past and contributed to low acceptance rates. And although previously the US government directly purchased the doses and helped distribute them for free, vaccine distribution is now expected to pass to the private sector.